近六百年来长江三角洲地区城镇空间与城镇体系格局演变分析

基于历史文献、古地图和现代遥感数据,引入历史学古代城镇形态复原方法,复原（提取）明代以来长江三角洲地区113座城镇7个时间断面（1461年、1820年、1930年、1970年、1980年、2000年和2010年）下的城镇边界,采用扩张速率、扩张效率、首位度指数和位序-规模法则,分析了近六百年来区域城镇空间与城镇体系等级规模演变格局。取得以下研究结果：\mathrm{①}研究时段内,区内城镇用地总规模由205.98 km²增加到6442.19 km²,扩大了31.27倍;城镇扩张经历了萌芽阶段（明清时期）、起步阶段（民国至改革开放前夕）、成长阶段（改革开放至2000年）和加速阶段（2000—2010年）,城镇扩张速率不断加快,但扩张效率有待提升;\mathrm{②}在城镇等级规模空间格局上,明清时期南京与苏州为区内的一级城镇,民国后,上海逐渐取代其地位,从五级城镇发展成为区域核心城镇,四级以上城镇主要集中在长江干流沿岸和太湖流域,五级以下城镇大多集中在安徽;城镇体系呈首位型分布,城镇首位度较高,且改革开放后的城镇首位度较明清与民国时期要高,不同等级规模城镇之间差距扩大,大城镇优势较强。近30年,长江沿岸城镇发展加速,苏锡常都市圈、南京都市圈等逐渐形成并快速发展。     

北大西洋地区气候准20年周期的观测和模拟分析

北大西洋地区除了存在约70 a周期的AMO（Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation,北大西洋年代际振荡）之外,历史长期气候记录中英格兰温度（Central England Temperature,CET）与格陵兰冰芯净雪累计率还存在显著的20 a周期波动。本研究利用CCSM4（Community Climate System Model version 4）耦合模式工业革命前控制试验（piControl）结果中的海表面温度（Sea Surface Temperature,SST）,通过10～50 a带通滤波与扩展经验正交函数（Extended Empirical Orthogonal Function,EEOF）分解,得到在北大西洋副极地海区存在准20 a振荡的逆时针旋转模态。此周期与其临近地区的CET、格陵兰冰芯净雪累计率的准20 a振荡周期相吻合,说明这种北大西洋副极地海区准20 a振荡的海洋模态与其临近地区的大气准20 a振荡之间可能存在相应的联系。进一步利用CAM4（the Community Atmosphere Model version4）大气模式,以北大西洋副极地海区准20 a振荡SST旋转模态为强迫场进行敏感性试验,进一步验证了这种联系。     

Metal binding by humic acids in recent sediments from the SW Iberian coastal area

The concentrations of Cu, Zn, Cr, Ni, Pb, As, Mn and Co were determined by Inductively Coupled Plasma–Mass Spectrometry both in recent sediments from different locations of the Huelva littoral (SW Iberian Peninsula) and in their humic acid (HA) fractions in order to evaluate distribution and binding capacity of those trace elements to HAs. In addition, elemental composition (C, N, S) and δ¹³C values were determined to appraise the sources of organic matter in the area. This study involved the comparison of selected samples taken from different environments including the estuary of the Guadiana River, the main fluvial system of the region, the Tinto and Odiel estuary system and the proximal shelf. Significant positive correlations were found among Cu, Zn, As and Pb in bulk sediments, suggesting a common origin of all of those elements: the mining activities and pyrite deposits located hinterland. On the other hand, results for Cr, Co and Ni pointed to the basic rocks from the low basin of the Guadiana River as their main source. Elemental (C, N) and isotopic (δ¹³C) composition of sediments indicated a significant contribution of autochthonous plankton in coastal shelf sediments, whereas estuarine and riverine sediments showed a major contribution of terrestrial biomass. Geochemical values for their corresponding HAs suggested a greater terrestrial contribution in the sedimentary OM of the coastal shelf sediments than in bulk sediments, which evidenced the influence of coastal currents and sediment fluxes. Humic acids sequester considerable amounts of Cu and Zn contributing to reduce the bioavailability of these contaminants.     

Comparison of Simulated and Reconstructed Temperature in China during the past 2000 years

Studying climate changes over the past 2 000 years has important scientific significance in exploring climate variability on decadal to centennial timescales, assessing the natural and anthropogenic contribution to the climate warming, and understanding the effects of human activities in the past and future climate changes. Due to the scarcity of observation and uncertainty of reconstruction in this period, climate model is developed as a useful tool for studying paleoclimate.The Community Earth System Model (CESM) is one of the state-of-the-art climate models, but its performance in simulating the temperature in China has not been examined.The temperature datasets of observation/reanalysis (GHCN_CAMS) and reconstructions during the past 2000 years in China were used to examine the performance of CESM. The comparison between the annual average temperatures of GHCN_CAMS reanalysis and simulation showed that the model well reproduced the spatial distributions and upward trend of the annual average temperature in China, and the comparison with reconstructions in five sub-regions of China indicated that the simulation were in good consistent with the average temperature changes of reconstructionson decadal time scales. On the centennial time scale, the average temperature fluctuations of simulation in the regions of China were in accord with reconstructions generally except for Central East and Tibet.There existed three warm periods of simulated temperature variation in China over the past 2000 years, including 0-540AD, 800-1250AD and 1901-2000AD, and two cold periods involving the 551-721AD and 1400-1850AD, which had some discrepancies with reconstructions. And the discrepancies between simulation and reconstructions might be related to uncertainties of the resolution, external forcing and parameterization of the subgrid-scale process in the model.     

桂林洞穴滴水与现代碳酸钙δ18O记录的环境意义--以桂林七星岩NO.15支洞为例

现代洞穴动态监测的一个先决条件就是为洞穴碳酸盐(CaCO₃)沉积物-石笋的各种替代指标的解译提供可靠的依据,充分利用现代碳酸盐(CaCO₃)沉积物的各种替代指标,并与现代器测气象资料进行相互对比、并用以校正,是精确或定量解释石笋气候替代指标的关键.
经对桂林七星岩15号支洞的5个滴水点进行了长达四个水文年(2008~2011年)的大气降水、洞穴滴水、现代碳酸盐沉积物的动态监测和研究,并探讨了洞穴滴水和现代碳酸盐(CaCO₃)的δ18O与降水δ18O的相关关系.研究表明,洞穴滴水和现代碳酸盐(CaCO₃)的年平均δ18O值非常接近降水的δ18O平均值,并具有与地表降水δ18O相同的变化趋势,反映了洞穴滴水和现代碳酸盐(CaCO₃)的δ18O主要来自大气降水的δ18O,即明显受控于降水的δ18O.在4个水文年中,现代洞穴次生化学碳酸盐(CaCO₃)沉积物的δ18O值与滴水的δ18O值记录的年内(或年际)变化或多年的变化趋势基本相同,表现出明显的四高峰(δ18O低值区)四低谷(δ18O高值区)的波动变化特征,具有明显的年际、季节性变化规律,显示具有雨热同季的特点.研究结果表明洞穴滴水和洞穴现代碳酸盐(CaCO₃)沉积物的δ18O可以记录当地或洞穴上方的气候变化信号,即现代碳酸盐(CaCO₃)沉积物的δ18O主要作为夏季风强度或降雨量的替代指标.     

吉林省敦化市乡村人群气候变化感知的偏差及群体分异研究

通过问卷调查,具体分析了吉林省敦化市乡村人群对气候变化趋势和极端冷暖年的感知偏差及人群分异.发现乡村人群对气候变化趋势的感知与科学事实比较符合,由于对变暖转折年代更敏感,因而对变暖的确认度在一些时段与科学事实在变化程度或幅度上存在比较大的偏差.乡村人群对极端冷暖年不如对趋势感知的准确度高.经验积累影响乡村人群对气候变化...     

加拿大老年人口状况及发展态势

采用加拿大2006年人口普查资料,结合旅居加国的经历,统计分析了加拿大老年人口的发展趋势和现状.分析显示:加拿大老年人口前期(1921-1981年)增长慢,后期(2001—2006年)增长快,老年人口数量中,女性比男性多,寿命比男性长,老年人口分布集中在安大略省;人口老龄化发展过程给社会带来了一系列问题,老龄化使政府和企业的养老负担日益加重,瞻养率大幅度下降,政府每年支付养老金及医疗费用的数量增加,导致劳动力市场压力增大,劳动资源不足.文中还介绍了人口专家为解决加国人口老龄化问题所提出的建议和对策,以及加拿大政府在老年人口养老与医疗方面的一些做法,认为值得中国借鉴.     

过去百年青海和西藏耕地空间格局重建及其时空变化

网格化的历史土地利用/覆被数据集,可为历史气候变化和碳循环研究提供基础数据。本文估算了1910年,并订正了1950-2000年青海和西藏的省域耕地面积数据;基于现代耕地空间格局,量化了海拔高程和地面坡度与耕地空间分布之间的关系,构建了历史耕地网格化重建模型。将1910、1960、1980和2000年的省域耕地面积数据带入网格化重建模型,得到了4个时间断面的耕地空间格局。结果表明:青藏两省耕地面积1910-1950年稳定,1950-1980年快速增加,1980-2000年基本稳定,略有降低。就空间格局而言,1960-1980年,河湟谷地和"一江两河"地区土地开垦范围的扩张和垦殖强度的增长在过去百年最为明显。模型检验表明,模型重建的2000年耕地空间格局与2000年遥感数据相关系数达0.92。     

Precipitation cycles in the middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River （1736-2000）

Based on the long-term precipitation series with annual time resolution in the middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River and its four sub-regions during 1736-2000 reconstructed from the rainfall and snowfall archives of the Qing Dynasty, the precipitation cycles are analyzed by wavelet analysis and the possible climate forcings, which drive the precipitation changes, are explored. The results show that： the precipitation in the middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River has inter-annual and inter-decadal oscillations like 2-4a, quasi-22a and 70-80a. The 2-4a cycle is linked with El Nino events, and the precipitation is lower than normal year in the occurrence of the El Nino year or the next year; for the quasi-22a and the 70-80a cycles, Wolf Sun Spot Numbers and Pacific Decadal Oscillation （PDO） coincide with the two cycle signals. However, on a 70-80a time scale, the coincidence between solar activity and precipitation is identified before 1830, and strong （weak） solar activity is generally correlated to the dry （wet） periods; after 1830, the solar activity changes to 80-100a quasi-century long oscillation, and the adjusting action to the precipitation is becoming weaker and weaker; the coincidence between PDO and precipitation is shown in the whole time series. Moreover, in recent 100 years, PDO is becoming a pace-maker of the precipitation on the 70-80a time scale.     

300年来中国森林的变化

Based on historical documents, modern survey and statistics, as well as the result of predecessor studies, the trend and main process of forest dynamics are recognized. The forest area and forest coverage rates for each province of China from 1700 to 1949 are estimated backward by every 50 years. Linking the result with modern National Forest Inventory data, the spatial-temporal dynamics of Chinese forest in recent 300 years （AD 1700-1998） is quantitatively analyzed. The study shows that in recent 300 years, the forest area in current territory of China has declined by 0.95×10^8 hm^2 （or 9.2% of the coverage rate） in total, with a trend of decrease and recovery. Before the 1960s, there was a trend of accelerated descending. The forest area was reduced by 1.66×10^8 hm^2 （or 17% of the coverage rate） in 260 years. While after the 1960s, there has been a rapid increase. The forest area increased by 0.7×10^8 hm^2 （or 8% of the coverage rate） in 40 years. The study also shows that there is a significant spatial difference in the dynamics of forest. The amplitudes of increasing and decreasing in western China are both smaller than the ones in eastern China. During the rapid declining period from 1700 to 1949, the most serious decrease appeared in the Northeast, the Southwest and the Southeast, where the coverage rate in most provinces dropped over 20%. In Heilongjiang Province, the coverage rate dropped by 50%. In Jilin Province, it dropped by 36%. In Sichuan Province and Chongqing Municipality, it dropped by 42%. In Yunnan Province, it dropped by 35%. During the recovery period 1949-1998, the western provinces, municipality and autonomous regions, including Ningxia, Gansu, Inner Mongolia, Sichuan-Chongqing, Yunnan, Tibet, Xinjiang and Qinghai, etc, the increase rates are all below 5%, while the eastern provinces, municipality and autonomous regions （except Heilongjiang, Hubei, Jiangsu-Shanghai） have achieved an increase over 5%, among which the Guangdong-Hainan, Guangxi, Anhui, Beijing-Tianjin-H